It’s been over three months but now, my dear children, it’s time. The RuPaul’s Drag Race semi-finals have arrived (and gone). We must place our bets. But first: the episode.

Instead of doing the largely time-honored tradition of remixing one of RuPaul’s songs for the semi-final, queens are expected to “write” their own memoir, shoot the cover, and promote it on a podcast with Matt Rogers. It’s obviously pointing back to Ru’s own recently released memoir, and the podcast interview is a cute new take on the Tic Tac brunch. And plus, the queens still get time with Ru as she’s coaching them through the cover shoot, which is actually quite beautiful to watch. We call her “Mama Ru” but to me she has a tendency of instruction that can err more like a father. Or at the very least, momager.

Sapphira Cristal knocks every single part of the challenge out of the park like the professional we know she is (including the fan-themed runway) and chums it up with Ru in a way that reads like more older-younger sister than parent and child. It’s a vibe she’s kept up with Ru throughout the show that she’s uniquely positioned to pull on. Nymphia Wind turns out a sneak upset win, going to an emotional interior the judges haven’t really been allowed into on the series. Q struggles with her cover and has a solid but not great interview. And what seems like for the first time, Plane Jane kind of flounders: she is holding so steadfast to her persona that she misses the challenge. 

In the end it’s Nymphia for the win with Plane and Q in the bottom, and Plane titty shakes Q right out of the competition. Given Q’s proven status as a sore loser, she is probably still feeling it to this day. But, she’s ultimately held down her place in the competition all the way to the semi-finals and hopefully, she’ll be able to be proud of that some day.

But who will take home the crown? 

When we look at the scoreboard, Sapphira Cristal and Plane Jane have a rough statistical tie: Four wins and one lip sync for your life a piece. And though ultimately whatever performance the girls do in the finale will play into it all, it’s more fun if we place our bets now.

And if it comes down to Sapphira and Plane, we are going to have to say Sapphira.

It’s not because she managed to pack some of the biggest costumes week after week, or that those looks are so impressive the judges never really mentioned her reliance on the color blue. It’s not because she makes RuPaul (and me) guffaw — and not just in the pre-written bits but in the off handed, extemporaneous patter that is the sign of a career drag queen. It’s also not because she’s already, post-show, picking up gigs like appearing onstage with Madonna. It’s because she’s the full package. And even as the full package, she still show us the person beneath it all. 16 years ago, in the initial casting call for Drag Race, Ru said she was searching for someone who is “American Idol, a fashion designer, and a top model all in one.” Sapphira is all of those things and more. 

This final three was a calculated bunch. I’m not sure if I actually remember a group of girls who have jointly, and so expertly, played the game. I clocked Plane early on, sometimes referring to her as a sort of persona created by artificial intelligence specifically to win on this show. But over time, Sapphira and Nymphia’s strategic minds became clear as well. During Snatch Game when RuPaul confessed she loved James Brown and asked why Sapphira had chosen him, her response was simply because she knew that exact fact already. And even Nymphia was intently strategic: though everyone saw her “manipulation” of her fellow competitors, I think that her choice to show so many non-yellow looks early on in the series was to address a critique before it appeared.

Which brings me to my other point: If we aren’t basing the win on track record, I think from a statement or even a storyline perspective, Nymphia Winds feels right for a win too. After 15 seasons of Drag Race there is the feeling that, to be frank, we’ve seen it all. And we haven’t. Nymphia is proof of that. She incorporates a set of references and a perspective that much of the American-based audience simply has not been exposed to. The semi-final cracked open a part of her that, in a way, completes her storyline: after weeks of having trouble connecting, she does so beautifully and deeply here. And at a time in drag where so many queens are sitting front row at fashion week or walking the runway themselves, and commissioning top dollar couture garments from a growing coterie of designers, there is something to be said about crowning a queen who is a couturier herself. It’s a statement that even though these queens can outsource the work, they don’t have to. It’s a statement about persevering creativity and the resourcefulness of drag.

And that … that certainly can make a winner.